newsThe Israel-Gaza conflict presents Putin with an opportunity, according...

The Israel-Gaza conflict presents Putin with an opportunity, according to Steve Rosenberg.

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One could be tempted to see Vladimir Putin as a monster like James Bond, hiding away in a mountainside with a massive command center and causing devastation on the globe.

When he pushes a single button, the Balkans become unstable.

The region known as the Middle East bursts up as he presses more switch.

It’s likely not correct, but it’s enticing. It overstates the leader of the Kremlin’s worldwide impact.

Indeed, Russia has become close to Iran it has connections to Hamas. The US claims that Moscow and Teheran now have a complete defense cooperation.

However, this does not mean that Moscow knew about or took part in the Hamas attack on Israel in advance. “We aren’t convinced that Russian played a role in any way,” Alexander Ben Zvi, Israel’s envoy to Moscow, told the Kommersant weekly on Monday. He characterized speculation that there might be a connection between Russia and the Hamas killings in Israel “pure nonsense.”

Hanna Notte, a Middle East and Russia researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Berlin, adds, “I haven’t seen any evidence of direct Russian weapons supplies to Hamas, or of the Russian military training Hamas operatives.”

“It is true that Russia and Hamas have a lengthy history together. Hamas was never designated as a terrorist organization by Russia. Delegations from Hamas visited Moscow both this year and last.

However, I wouldn’t conclude from that that there has been a lot of military assistance. Despite the fact that we are aware that Iranian aid and the Sinai (in Egypt) are likely how Russian-made systems entered the Gaza Strip.”

Put otherwise, there was no “Middle East war” button pressed by President Putin.

Is he prepared, nevertheless, to take advantage?

Certainly. This is also how.

Take Away From Ukraine

Moscow hopes to deflect attention from its war in Ukraine with dramatic headlines from Israel, since the Middle East’s violence spike is taking center stage in world news.

However, this goes beyond merely a shift in the news cycle. Furthermore, given the conditions in the area, the Russian leadership thinks that many of the weapons the West provided to Ukraine may end up in Israel.

Izvestia, a tabloid that supports the Kremlin, cited Russian envoy Anton Gavrilov as saying, “I believe this crisis will directly influence the course of the special military operation [in Ukraine].

“The situation in Israel will grab the attention of Ukraine’s backers. That does not imply that Ukrainians will be abandoned by the West. However, there is going to be less military assistance provided, and the operation’s trajectory might abruptly shift to Russia’s advantage.”

Is Russia acting in good faith? Really, maybe.

In an address to NATO defense chiefs, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, “We can and will stand by Israel, even as we stand by Ukraine.”

However, a protracted Middle East fight will put America’s ability to back two allies in two different wars at the same time to the test.

The intermediary, Russia?

By portraying itself as a potential broker of peace, Russia is attempting to increase its influence in the Middle East.

It has previously played that role by participating in previous international initiatives to put an end to the regional strife.

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for President Putin, stated that “Russia can and will play a role in the resolution [of the conflict]”. “We’re maintaining contacts with sides in the conflict.”

The prime minister of Iraq urged President Putin to “announce an initiative for a real ceasefire” in the region during a visit to Moscow this week.

Russia, the broker of peace? Sell that hard, please.

After everything, this is the nation that started a complete takeover of its neighbor. The world was shocked when Russia attacked Ukraine.

just we can say that we have helped bring about peace does not guarantee that the parties on strength it.

Moscow has remained pro-Arab and has had tight connections with the US even since Israel brought itself closer to the US. In the days of the Soviet republics, sponsored by the state apartheid existed for a very long period.

After the Soviet Union had collapsed in 1991, almost a million Jews from former Soviet republics fled to Israel, strengthening ties between Russia and Israel.

However, contact between the two has recently been restricted due to Russia’s expanding relations under Vladimir Putin with Israel’s opponents, particularly Iran.

Critiquing America

The Kremlin sees an opportunity to do what it does best: assign responsibility to the US.

After the attack on Israel throughout Gaza, Vladimir Putin declared unambiguously that “this is an example of the failure of United States policy regarding the Middle East”.

It aligns with Moscow’s larger plan to subvert “US hegemony”.

Furthermore, by bolstering Russia and undercutting Washington by portraying America as the primary perpetrator, the Putin regime is utilizing the Middle East to achieve its own agenda.

As I stated before, there are advantages for Russia in the Middle East advances, but there are also disadvantages.Hanna Notte thinks that “carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best.”

“If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine – and there’s a real risk of that, given the importance of Israel in the US domestic political context – yes, Russia could be a short-term beneficiary.”

However, Ms. Notte asserts that Russia would not gain from a conflict including other countries in the region, such as Iran, which arms and finances Hamas.

“A full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran is not what Russia desires. I believe Russia will be forced to move closer to the Iranian side if things go in that direction and it becomes evident that America supports Israel. It may not want to, in my opinion.

“I think Putin still appreciates his connections with Israel. I don’t think Russian diplomacy wants to step into that

 

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