Today we’re talking about israel vs. iran the shadow war. Last weekend, Tehran crossed what had been considered a red line by targeting Israeli territory directly with drones and missiles.
For decades, both sides have engaged in silent attacks against each other without openly declaring them and managed to stave off a full-scale conflict. But that seems to be changing.
Israel’s Strategy
Israel’s airstrike on 1 April that killed members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force at their embassy in Damascus marked an important escalation in a longstanding shadow war, but did not necessarily change any major strategic variables.
Iran has waged war against Israel in secret for decades, deploying advanced weaponry through militant proxies across third countries to destabilize their neighbors and undermine Israel’s legitimacy worldwide. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps’ primary form of warfare involves providing funding, logistical support, indoctrination and arming main combatants in Gaza, Syria, Iraq Lebanon Yemen as well as smaller militant groups from Israel’s West Bank – its primary goal being destabilization and undermining of Israeli state legitimacy around the globe.
Till now, this strategy has produced some military successes but failed to fulfill its strategic objective of creating an environment in which Israel’s political and military leaders would feel compelled to combat Iran’s efforts with open hostilities. Such a war cannot be waged solely between Iran and Israel but must also include regional allies – particularly the United States – as key participants.
Israel seems to be taking a measured response despite pressure from Netanyahu’s hard right cabinet ministers and inner circle for immediate retaliation, however the risk of escalation remains significant and could escalate into an open regional conflict.
Iran’s Strategy
After months of proxy warfare, Iran has finally made its attacks against Israel public. On 13th April, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – the preeminent branch of its armed forces and cornerstone of its regime – fired hundreds of drones and missiles into Israeli targets from within Iran as part of an attack designed to demonstrate Iran’s growing military might and signal Tehran has lost patience with Israel and will engage directly.
Iranian officials had deliberated for weeks over how best to respond to Israel’s attack on their consulate in Damascus. Their goal was to find an approach that would meet domestic expectations while sending a powerful deterrent signal – all while preventing all-out war with Israel.
At last, they arrived at an agreement that was both dramatic and underwhelming. By preannounced its intentions, targeting specific military targets without including civilians in its strikes and restricting retaliatory attacks to select military targets only, Iran sought to ensure Israel could not easily retaliate without crossing some unwritten threshold for full-scale conflagration. Israel’s economic burden, the potential regional conflict impact as well as psychological ramifications all played key roles when reaching a decision regarding open clashes with Iran.
Israel’s Response
Iran’s response to Israel’s air strike this week served as a stark reminder of their longstanding rivalry, which remains locked in an unsettled shadow war that is capable of turning into full-scale conventional conflict. Although Israel’s retaliation killed no one, it caused Iran to launch missiles and drones over the weekend that Israeli allies managed to foil.
Iran launched a first direct strike on Israel as a response to an airstrike by Israel on April 1 that hit a Damascus complex and killed Iran-backed generals. Israel claims that nearly all missiles and drones fired against its military were intercepted successfully, which receives regular assistance from American, British, and French partners in Syria.
According to a senior administration official, the US has not given approval for Israel to respond in kind to Iran’s attack, though Iran will likely retaliate further over time.
Tit-for-tit bludgeoning could escalate into full-scale war that destabilizes the Middle East and puts lives of Israelis, Palestinians and Iranians alike at risk. At present, however, it remains uncertain if Israel will opt for a measured response that prioritizes alliances over revenge despite intense internal political pressure and demands by families of dozens of Israeli captives Iran continues to hold captive in Gaza – however Netanyahu and his government appear unlikely to veer from a strategy which has successfully avoided all-out war with Hezbollah and Iranian allies from Lebanon through Yemen to Syria and beyond. If you want more details, please click here.
Iran’s Response
Iran launched an unprecedented military attack against Israel from Iranian territory, using hundreds of drones and missiles launched from within Iran itself against Israeli targets on April 1. Many observers saw this attack as a direct retaliation to an Israeli air strike on Syrian targets on April 1, which killed six IRGC Quds Force commanders.
The attack marked an abrupt shift from Iran’s policy of restraint, seeking to reinstate deterrence against Israel’s attacks. Policy hawks in Tehran claimed Israel’s attacks had failed to deter Iran and that ultimately it would need to respond with force against any attacks by taking defensive steps itself.
Israel was able to hold off an Iranian barrage, yet this incident set an unnerving precedent: Iran can attack without facing accountability; now both America and Israel need to consider what this could mean for future conflicts between the two states.
Israel should prioritize destabilizing Hamas in Gaza while working closely with the US to provide better protections for Palestinian civilians there. Furthermore, it should work to decapitate Hezbollah by attacking its tunnel infrastructure and military brigades – though such action could escalate across the Middle East involving Iran – risking both Iranian lives and potentially drawing in the US into conflict – making any further confrontation unlikely at this time.
